With more than 22,000 kilometers of paved highways, São Paulo has the largest and most complex road network of all Brazilian states. The state’s Military Police is responsible for protecting all 645 municipalities, and traffic affects a large part of the country’s economy.  

This road network, mostly urbanized and prosperous in the economic and social aspects, is full of industries, oil terminals, banking establishments, airports and prisons, drawing the attention and interest of criminal organizations.  

The same criminal elements that are interested in leveraging the road network and taking advantage of the opportunities it can provide commit ultraviolent crimes against property (UVP), whose main characteristic is insubordination to police forces, sometimes increased with the use of armored vehicles, rifles and machine guns or the use of hostages as human shields. As a result, these crimes generate social damage that has been the target of attention by public managers, journalists, academia and society.  

The negative impacts resulting from these events, such as loss of life, property damage, and economic losses, are of great concern to public security institutions.  

“Risk management is related to the reduction of uncertainties”

Every step in tackling this type of extreme crime is essential to minimize the negative impacts. Currently, the monitoring and control of UVP crimes is typically carried out reactively, by each impacted unit, usually in meetings for this purpose. In these situations, there is the opportunity to review documents and gather informatoin from those who were actively involved; however this primary analysis proves to be inefficient from a tactical and operational point of view, as there is a lack of elements that provide territorial domination. organized and processed with its own methodology, suggesting the possibility of actions and measures to prevent or correct possible problems detected in the processes or areas in which the organization operates.¹ 

That said, it is believed that it is possible, by following an appropriate methodology and respecting the experience of our police officers, to gradually reduce the degree of subjectivity in the decision-making process, especially since risk tolerance is established by the Commander.  

The idea of public security, inherent to the police mission, established by the Federal Constitution of 1988, constitutes a true guarantee that the State offers to citizens, through its own organizations, including the State Military Police, against any danger that may affect public order, to the detriment of life, liberty and property.  

Risk Management Tools 

With the advent of the “new public management,” terms such as governance, integrity, compliance and risk management are gradually being incorporated into the decision-making process of public administration, in order to face the complex challenges of today.  

There is no doubt that police activity is risky. In this sense, it can be said that risk management is related to the reduction of uncertainties. It is crucial for police officers to make decisions based on as much information as possible in order to take an advantageous position in the theater of operations.  

It is possible to reason logically about the context of UVP crimes, once the causes and consequences that gave rise to the problem (or, at least, a probable hypothesis) have been established. It is necessary to define how the intervention will take place to achieve the best results. 

To this end, some risk management tools were selected that can be used by each Commander to identify, assess and manage risks, because the more structured the institution is and the more mature the risk management structure, the greater the security of the action.

Risk Map

The risk map is a tool that allows the assessment of risks according to the criteria or parameters provided by specialists, technicians or those responsible for identifying the risk. 

The map should reflect the risk analysis to allow a holistic view, that is, indicate the risk at the time before treatment and its current situation. 

Risks can be filtered to the organization or department, as well as opportunities or threats and other grouping mechanisms that make it easier to visualize the problem. 

 

 

 

In the example above, the dark circles (filled) represent the previous moment (of risk identification) and the light circles, the current moment. The numbers indicated in the circles represent the amount of related risks. Department 2, for example, maintained the number of risks from the previous moment, however, its risks had a high level of impact, which caused a repositioning in the graph, going from a light to a moderate impact.  

In this format, after the risks are properly identified and registered, in order to allow the survey of possible causes and consequences, in addition to their classification as to category and nature, the process of their evaluation regarding probability versus impact follows. In Figure 1, blue indicates the normality of the risk; green, minimum urgency; yellow requires attention; and red characterizes the most urgent risks.  

Summary Reports 

The purpose of summary reports is to provide information to decision-makers with a synthetic view of the amount of risks at the time of their identification (previous moment) and current moment, as well as a comparison between these two moments. This technique presents the sum of threats and opportunities through a filter.  

The following image shows this set of information across four departments of any organization, during a given time period.  

 

 

In this scenario, it is observed that Department 1 maintained the number of threats from the previous moment, but identified a current opportunity. Department², on the other hand, resolved a threat and concluded an opportunity. 

The summary report does not contain the severity of the risks, focusing instead on the number of risks and opportunities to which departments are exposed. This technique allows for a quick and expanded view of which departments are facing the most problems and require the most attention. In conjunction with this type of report, succinct and explanatory texts should be developed in relation to the risks and opportunities identified.  

Alert Communications and Messages 

After the quantitative registration of risks, a set of information, such as the date of a survey and the proximity to the last update, can contribute to the planning of the systematic review. For example, a severe risk that hasn’t been updated in more than seven days can cause a problem. In this case, it is recommended that the risks be revisited frequently to update the registration information.  

Another example corresponds to risks that are close to the deadline of the solution. Through alert messages, it is possible to keep decision-makers updated and ready to respond. In this context, the use of information systems that can be created for specific alerts by email or other communication channel is a priority to ensure that managers are notified of risks in the conduct of their activities.  

Virtual communication mechanisms are a practical means of communication between all managers and employees, as they allow everyone to ask questions and talk to experts and, more importantly, allow leadership to talk to the work team. 

Decision Tree

Among the most practical models that contribute to the decision-making process are decision trees. 

The method is characterized by systematizing a series of facts, risks, probabilities and opportunities – related to a situation; goal; Goals; or, on a larger scale, programs and projects—whose effects must be recognized, manipulated and compared. 

“Insight arises from the process of adapting and improving ideas, which can even serve as inspiration for solutions to other problems”

The method also ensures that the quality of all decisions is influenced by the accuracy of the information; the quality of judgments and evaluations; their probability factors; and the decision-maker’s attitude toward risk management.  

Decision trees take the form of diagrams and structure a map with possible choices for the best course of action. Despite its simple form, this tool can provide justification for choosing alternative courses of action/decision.  

 

The tree is useful, not only to organize the influencing factors on the problem at hand, but also to stimulate the imagination and deepen the examination of crucial elements, revealing points of possible impacts and consequences. In addition, it is an auxiliary method of verifying and contesting the measures taken, as it allows the codification of impacts by other independent means of analysis.  

Brainstorming 

Brainstorming is a technique created in 1953 by Alex Osborn, focused on solving problems or expanding ideas. A group of people meets and, based on their thoughts and suggestions, the possibility of reaching a consensus on the case under study is suggested²

The first step of the technique, and perhaps the most important, is to ensure the definition of the problem, because only then will it be possible to plan corrective actions.  

“When reality is simple and without great uncertainties, common sense can be used satisfactorily and without major surprises”

Brainstorming has multiple advantages, but its main benefit may be the ability to germinate the causes of problems, help decide on a step-by-step process for the development of a project and recognize opportunities, as well as encourage everyone’s participation, considering that censorship by other participants is not allowed.³ Insight arises from the process of adapting and improving ideas, which can even serve as inspiration for solutions to other problems.  

It is a technique used to develop creative and innovative ideas. All members of the group present suggestions randomly, while one person registers the ideas, without criticism. The process allows new ideas to emerge; the emergence of ideas, including unknown ones, increases; stimulates synergy; and discourages evaluation or judgment. Brainstorming escapes the limits of logical thinking and transcends the constraints of tradition, time, resources, and precedents.⁴  

A variation of brainstorming is brain writing, and the basic difference between the two tools is the fact that, in the latter, opinions and ideas are presented by the group in writing.⁵ It is excellent for capturing the creative thinking of a team. The important thing is the quantity of ideas presented, not the quality.⁶  

Brainstorming can be facilitated by the following process: 

1. Agree with the question.
2. Transcribe all ideas—all ideas should be exposed at the same time.
3. Decide together which option is the best among the alternatives. 

In addition, there are two main types of brainstorming:  

1. Structured: There is a methodology for ideas to be expressed; it has the advantage of getting everyone on board. On the other hand, it has the disadvantage of putting pressure on the participants.
2. Unstructured: Ideas manifest spontaneously, without a specific methodology; its main advantage is that it is a calmer meeting, without pressure; However, it has the disadvantage of not having the participation of everyone, since the most timid employees can remain silent, while the most expansive can monopolize the survey of alternatives, making the result biased.  

It is up to the brainstorming leader to define the method of data collection, depending on the complexity of the problem and the profile of the participants.  

Scenario Analysis 

The main function of scenario analysis is to recognize the context (internal and external) in which the organization is inserted. Scenarios are alternative images of the future that favor the decision-making process and also configure possible or probable futures through the simulation and unfolding of certain differentiated conditions and externalization of the events that would lead to their realization.

In the development of this methodology, it is recommended to use the SWOT analysis approach—Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats, which strengthen the investigation and formulation of organizational strategies.⁷ 

The idea is to have a complete and integrated picture of the possible factual contexts, based on the environmental analysis and, for each need detected, on the obstacles that may hinder or prevent the achievement of the intended objective. 

“Great decision-makers, such as chess players, do not make the move that produces the greatest immediate advantage”

Thus, in essence, scenarios are an analytical and speculative approach that, as a complement to decision-making, serve to explain the assumptions, integrate variables and allow the emergence of uncertainties, in the face of the participation of the various actors, which may, in some way, favor or oppose the achievement of the objectives.  

“Thinking about the future” means looking far away—worrying about the long term; looking big picture—being careful about interactions; and looking deep—finding the factors and trends that are really important; as well as taking risks, because visions of distant horizons can change long-term plans, and taking into account the human race, a great agent capable of changing the future.⁸

When reality is simple and without great uncertainties, common sense can be used satisfactorily and without major surprises in solving the problems of the decision. However, when reality becomes complex, common sense can become erratic and the choice of a criterion to support the decision should be left to the manager, who will seek to find in it an auxiliary tool for problem solving.  

According to business professor Michael E. Porter, the following strategic options can be considered:  

Bet on the most likely scenario—The strategy will be based on the scenario with the highest probability of occurrence (the strategy adopted by most companies). 

• Bet on the best scenario—Define the strategy based on the scenario that the organization believes is the best for its future competitive positioning.  

• Seek robustness, define the strategy that produces satisfactory results in all scenarios.  

• Aim for flexibility—A flexible strategy is adopted until the most likely scenario becomes apparent.  

• Influencing the occurrence of the best-case scenario—The organization seeks to increase the probability of the best-case scenario occurring.  

• Combine some of the above⁹

To decide is to choose a plan of action, a strategy, in the light of the understanding and knowledge that one has in the present reality. This must be done in association with the vision of future circumstances, based on experience and knowledge of the past, which directs the objectives.  

Great decision-makers, such as chess players, do not make the move that produces the greatest immediate advantage, but the move that, many steps later, will offer the best and most successful position. 

To define the action plan, it is suggested, for simplicity, the adoption of the 5W2H methodology. The w and h represent mission-related actions and requirements:  

1. What: What will be done
2. Who: who will carry out the activities
3. Where: where these activities will be carried out
4. When: when each activity will be carried out
5. Why: Determination of the reasons for actions
6. How: how the activities will be carried out
7. How much: what resources or funds will be spent on the activity 

The awareness planning approach is the basis for diagnosing any situation in which it is necessary to implement a methodology for the construction of prospective scenarios, and it is only necessary to adapt them to the reality of each manager.  

In a study carried out by two researchers, Elaine Coutinho Marcial and Alfredo José Lopes Costa, in 2001, examining the effects of competitive intelligence on the process of elaborating a strategic scenario and understanding its methodology by the directors of Banco do Brasil (BB), it was shown: 

“The use of prevention indicators is essential for the reduction of social damage”

Due to the speed at which the macro environment is changing, companies have been more affected by it than by the environment of their own industry. For this reason, there has been a growing need for environmental monitoring, which, according to Stoffels (1994), is a set of techniques capable of transcribing to the company the issues of external competitiveness, which concern social, political, economic and technological variables—which may be difficult to observe or diagnose, but cannot be ignored.¹⁰

 

 

As shown in Table 1, out of a total of 58 interviewees:  

• 36 percent master the methodology, develop it and apply it;  

• 35 percent recognize, develop and seek mastery of the methodology;  

• 14 percent recognize the importance, but do not apply it;  

• 2 percemt are unaware of the scenarios and, therefore, do not apply them.  

In conclusion, the study makes the following statement:  

The tests applied showed that the environmental turbulence in the financial system has led BB executives to be concerned about the short term and, therefore, to show little interest in “thinking about the future.” The issue of stimulating strategic thinking and establishing a vision of the future was in last place in the order of priorities. To change this, it is necessary to create in BB a unified language on the various concepts that involve scenario techniques so that there are no doubts about the terms used.¹¹(emphasis added) 

 Now, considering the constant changes that police organizations face, taking into account the magnitudes of the challenges, which are increasingly distinct and complex, and also in view of the probability of suffering serious injuries, traumas and deaths, in the face of occurrences involving UVP crimes, there is no doubt that the notion of risk, for these occurrences, goes beyond the ordinary daily life of a police officer. This is an “epidemiological risk,” which must be tackled with the right medicine.  

Police officers should use force when necessary and, above all, they should use procedural and police information techniques. In this sense, the construction of prospective scenarios helps a lot, as it allows for true institutional enrichment in operational terms. 

The Modeling of Preventive or Emergency Preparedness Plans 

Risk management precedes the stages of incident management (which occur at the beginning of the crime) and is basically composed of the prevention and emergency preparedness phases. A third perspective of damage mitigation is a direct effect of the successful execution of the previous steps. 

“For planning to be successful, it is necessary to verify the conditioning elements in the achievement of the intended objectives”

As much as the current reactive practice of monitoring and controlling UVP crimes produces some results, and even considering that some units are already advancing in terms of preparation, due to the performance of simulations, it is necessary to use new instruments that can further increase the preparation of the police force, depending on the profiles of these occurrences.  

In this context, the use of prevention indicators is essential for the reduction of social damage, as it enables the correction of failures during the process of preventive action, logically already preceded by a careful phase of choosing these indicators, which organizes the emergency preparation stage, in order to safely receive the next phase of incident management.  

This methodology aims to further improve the UVP crime response system, before negative events reach police and civilians, because, as much as the collection of quantitative data is a fundamental step in the criminal analysis process, it is only the first stage of a construction that involves several actors in the public security system.  

Nowadays, there is a widespread recognition in the scientific community that no public or private organization, with military or civilian purposes, functions well without human capital capable of efficiently and effectively carrying out the activities assigned to it. It can be considered that the situation is even worse when the organization is unable to improve or outline actions to prevent crime, in a field where this is the main responsibility of the organization.  

For planning to be successful, it is necessary to verify the conditioning elements in the achievement of the intended objectives. The analysis of the profile and structural aspect of each operational unit allows the evaluation of focus and flexibility, that is, with a focus of action, the unit identifies the point of convergence of efforts and, with flexibility, achieves the ability to adjust as the progress of the incident requires.  

As can be predicted, structured planning offers a number of operational advantages, including increased flexibility, coordination, and time management. The following, in addition to increasing situational awareness, allows an organization to allocate the resources it uses to gain the best possible operational advantage.  

The available means (currently used) and the potential (which can be achieved over time) are part of the analysis of the operating environment of territorial or specialized units. The environment determines the nature of the power design and the behavior of operating assets. When operational assets work in the environment of certainty, small operational changes can adjust perfectly to demand; however, in the face of UVP crimes, which involve complex and differentiated activities, there is a need for a strategy that leads to the growth or controlled expansion of actions, due to the complexity, fluidity and uncertainty of the environment.  

The needs of territorial or specialized units are related to the needs that must be met (technological, human, training, equipment, among others) and that can help, in the future, the process of prevention and preparation for emergencies in relation to UVP crimes. The main objective is to put the operational structure at the service of the environment, strategy, technology and operational assets, that is, the meeting of needs must be able to organize and articulate resources in order to seek the adequacy of all the multiple circumstances that can serve the risk reduction process.  

Obstacles to preventive or emergency preparedness are the adverse or antagonistic factors that hinder or prevent the planning of preventive or emergency preparedness actions by territorial or specialized units. The notion of obstacles will necessarily lead to the prioritization of tasks and decisions about which ones will be executed with greater operational security. Through careful contingency planning, it is possible to anticipate possible scenarios and articulate an effective response before they happen. A well-informed, trained team that understands the actions that will be carried out, already considering the possible obstacles, prevents the policing system from being overloaded with risky and improvised decisions, in addition to enabling an effective decentralized command.  

Knowledge management, based on lessons learned and the exchange of experiences, allows an efficient methodology for the elaboration and dissemination of action plans. In the context of UVP crimes, numerous problems are added, as the actions, in addition to being complex in themselves, require extreme attention. These occurrences, due to the environment of pressure and risk, in addition to generating stress, require quick decisions and this process can overwhelm Commanders. Therefore, all planning begins with the analysis of the mission and especially the lessons learned. Commanders should cultivate clear guidelines for their teams.  

“Information gathering is important, but it should be employed with realistic expectations”

In leading a territorial or specialized unit, Commanders must assume that in planning there will always be some kind of risk, which must be considered in all its circumstances. Knowledge management does not minimize the importance of any aspect and serves to prepare the team for the most likely contingencies in order to maximize mission success and mitigate the risks inherent in operational assets.  

Once a preventive action or emergency preparedness plan has been drawn up, it should be communicated to all staff and units involved; In addition, knowledge about the actions must be provided to the other participants and support elements in the actions.  

A good summary of the actions will allow the participants of the operation to understand the strategy, the intention of the Commander, the mission of the teams and their roles. In addition, this will provide you with a correct understanding of contingencies, for example, challenges that may arise and how to react to them.  

The pre-incidental phase—prior to the outbreak of the incident and focused on the preventive aspect—is essentially intended for the territorial protection of the area to be affected. 

The unit must activate the territorial defense plan of the impacted municipality and the surrounding municipalities; reinforce the barracks guard and maintain an exclusive team for communications; define safe points for the command and positioning of patrols; establish an action limit for each service unit; carry out the prior preparation of the terrain and possible attack sites; carry out the mapping of rural properties and hotels; verify the monitoring systems and their correct functioning; check emergency communication systems; and perform tactical patrolling and preventive blockade in layers. 

The emergency preparation phase, after knowledge of the fact and before the teams are sent to the theater of operations, consists of a true preparation for the first service and aims to execute the local siege plan and the regional siege plan under the coordination of the Operations Center of the Military Police of the State of São Paulo (COPOM). 

Commanders must be prepared to understand all the variables of the environment at once. This phase will allow for operational safety before they take control and interpretation of the environment. The current day-to-day problems of emergency situations or without a defined strategy will be mitigated at this time. Selecting and understanding the previously defined operating environment will reduce dissonance and maintain consonance between patrols. Studies have shown that early reactions and an incomplete understanding of the theater of operations put police officers at a disadvantage, tipping the scales in favor of offenders. 

The post-incident phase is intended for recording the occurrence; checking injured people; preserving the crime scene; collecting banknotes and materials left during the escape; verifying the existence or not of secondary explosives that have not yet been detonated, including inside abandoned vehicles; collecting images from recording systems; checking abandoned vehicles; verifying the presence of fugitives in the forest; injured in hospitals, or who committed suicide on private property; and tunnel checks.  

For the previous three phases to work in synergy, there must be a point of connection between training and mobilization activities—the planning phase. UVP crimes require an environmental perception peculiar to operational assets. There are some risks that cannot be mitigated; However, detailed plans help manage them because everyone involved, directly or indirectly, will know how to overcome or work around obstacles when they arise or even how to control situations when something goes wrong.  

Conclusion 

It is essential that all levels of command have access to the knowledge that involves risk management and appropriate this knowledge.  

First responders almost never have a complete picture or a clear and certain understanding of the actions or reactions of offenders who commit UVP crimes. The first contact, as demonstrated in this article, can be the shooting and the violent impact of the shots received.  

It is essential that commanders and subordinate personnel make the best possible decisions based on the information they have access to and must act decisively in the midst of uncertainty.  

Information gathering is important, but it should be employed with realistic expectations. Commanders and operational assets must be able to create scenarios based on previous experiences, accessing knowledge about the modi operandi of criminals, in order to have intelligence available for immediate use. This way of acting makes a huge difference, as police officers face life-or-death situations, and it is the leader’s obligation to bring them back alive from missions. d

 

Notes: 

¹Risks “are systematic ways of dealing with the dangers and insecurities induced and introduced by the modernization process itself”; Ulrich Beck, Risk Society: Towards a New Modernity (London: Sage, 1992).  

²Alex Faickney Osborn was a U.S. advertising executive. He was the author of an important creativity technique called brainstorming.   

³he author identifies brainstorming to be more than a group dynamics technique; defining it as an activity developed to explore the creative potential of an individual or a group—the creativity of the team—putting it at the service of predetermined objectives.

⁴George Bohlander, Scott Snell and Arthur Sherman, Human Resource Administration, trans. Maria Lúcia G. Leite Rosa (São Paulo, Brazil: Pioneira Thomson Learning, 2003), 547.  

⁵Elaine Coutinho Marcial and Alfredo José Lopes Costa, The Use of Prospective Scenarios in Business Strategy: Speculative Foresight or Competitive Intelligence (ANPAD, 2001).  

⁶L.C.G. de Araujo, Organization, Systems and Methods and Technologies of Organizational Management. vol. 1. São Paulo: Atlas, 2008. 

⁷SWOT analysis is a strategic planning technique used to help people or organizations identify competition-related strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats in business or project planning. 

⁸Michel Godet, “Creating the Future: The Use and Misuse of Scenarios,” Long-Range Planning 29, no. 2 (1996): 164–171. 

⁹Michel E. Porter, Competitive Advantage: Creating and Sustaining Superior Performance, 7th ed. (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: Campus, 1992). 

¹⁰Marcial and Costa, The Use of Prospective Scenarios in Business Strategy. 

¹¹Marcial and Costa, The Use of Prospective Scenarios in Business Strategy. 

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Please cite as

Luiz Eduardo Ulian Junqueria, “Risk Management Tools for Modeling Emergency Preparedness Plans,” Police Chief Online, October 30, 2024.