{"id":36366,"date":"2017-06-30T16:01:21","date_gmt":"2017-06-30T20:01:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.policechiefmagazine.org\/?p=36366"},"modified":"2017-07-05T10:32:02","modified_gmt":"2017-07-05T14:32:02","slug":"driving-down-violent-gun-crime","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.policechiefmagazine.org\/driving-down-violent-gun-crime\/","title":{"rendered":"Driving Down Violent Gun Crime with Data Analytics"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"_idContainer295\" class=\"Object-Style-1 _idGenObjectStyleOverride-2\">\n<p class=\"ARTICLE-TEXT-Drop-Cap-2014\"><span class=\"_idGenDropcap-4\">I<\/span>n 2011, the City of Stockton, California, found itself in an unenviable position. Despite the diligent efforts of the short-staffed but dedicated department, it was ranked the second most violent city in California and the tenth most violent city in the United States.<sup>1<\/sup> Law enforcement and the community were frustrated and looking for better results. The department\u2019s leadership was deploying its most valuable resources\u2014the men and women of its force\u2014based on experience, sound practices, and instinct, but it wasn\u2019t enough. Working harder wasn\u2019t the answer; the department needed to work smarter.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"ARTICLE-SUBHEAD-2014\"><span class=\"CharOverride-73\" style=\"color: #333300;\">Evidence-Based Policing<\/span><\/h3>\n<p class=\"ARTICLE-TEXT-2014\">The department\u2019s leadership realized that if they didn\u2019t make changes, they wouldn\u2019t see any changes. Plus, they realized that solely relying on experience and gut instinct would make them right only about 50 percent of the time\u2014or less. That\u2019s when they began to focus on evidence-based policing.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ARTICLE-TEXT-2014\">Evidence-based policing has been defined as \u201ca law enforcement perspective and philosophy that implicates the use of research, evaluation, analysis, and scientific processes in law-enforcement decision-making.\u201d<sup>2<\/sup> Evidence-based policing requires evaluating whether the actions an agency is taking are actually working. That evaluation takes many forms\u2014conducting research, examining various metrics, and simply taking a close look at the strategies being employed and whether they are working in the field as intended. If the efforts aren\u2019t yielding the intended results, then the agency needs to regroup and make the necessary changes.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ARTICLE-TEXT-2014\">When the Stockton Police Department made the decision to incorporate evidence-based policing into its resource deployment strategy, predictive analysis in policing was very new. Some U.S. law enforcement agencies were starting to use predictive analysis to forecast crime, but the efforts had largely centered on using data and analytics to forecast and decrease property crime. In Stockton\u2019s case, the department chose to focus on reducing violent firearm-related crime. In doing so, the department\u2019s leadership knew that they were charting new territory in policing.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ARTICLE-TEXT-2014\">In order to implement this new approach, the department selected a crime analysis platform that uses predictive and analytical software and mapping tools to identify and analyze crime activity and patterns.<sup>3<\/sup><\/p>\n<p class=\"ARTICLE-TEXT-2014\">In addition, the Stockton Police Department acquired a dedicated crime analyst from their software provider, LexisNexis Risk Solutions, who works on-site with a team of seven Stockton Police Department crime analysts.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_36378\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-36378\" style=\"width: 1366px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.policechiefmagazine.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/image-3.bmp\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-36378\" src=\"http:\/\/www.policechiefmagazine.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/image-3.bmp\" alt=\"\" width=\"1366\" height=\"613\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-36378\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The data analytics dashboard presents a visual look at compiled crime data from various angles, such as crime class and frequency per day, week, or hour.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"ARTICLE-TEXT-2014\">Stockton\u2019s crime analysts leverage the predictive software to combine data from disparate data sources and look at the past history of gun violence over a defined period and analyze the data spatially and temporally (day of week and time of day). These efforts are the foundation of Project Forebode.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"ARTICLE-SUBHEAD-2014\"><span class=\"CharOverride-73\" style=\"color: #333300;\">Project Forebode<\/span><\/h3>\n<p class=\"ARTICLE-TEXT-2014\">Project Forebode stands for forecast-based deployment. As applied to Project Forebode, the evidence-based policing process comprises three phases at Stockton Police Department.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ARTICLE-LEVEL-2-SUBHEAD\"><em><span class=\"CharOverride-73\">Phase I: Data Testing <\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"ARTICLE-TEXT-2014\">All good research begins with a question and a control group to test the hypothesis. The question is, will gun crime actually happen as forecasted? In this case, the control group comprises 2014 data from the records management system (RMS) in the following categories: homicide, attempted homicide, robbery (commercial), robbery (individual), and aggravated assault. The crime analysts filter for incidents involving firearms and filter out domestic violence cases. Analysts do not consider the size or population of the district in their analyses. The data were selected from 2014 because they were \u201cuntreated,\u201d meaning the department did not use an analytical framework to dispatch officers to a forecast zone at that time.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Evidence-based policing has been defined as \u201ca law enforcement perspective and philosophy that implicates the use of research, evaluation, analysis, and scientific processes in law-enforcement decision-making.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p class=\"ARTICLE-TEXT-2014\">After filtering the results, the crime analysts examine data from each of the city\u2019s six law enforcement districts for a certain period of time and location. For the forecast to be accurate and reliable, pulling the data by the same set of parameters (month, six months, year, or whatever time period is selected) is important. For example, to forecast crime for the month of January 2016, the analyst could pull the data for a year (December 31, 2014\u2013December 31, 2015) or six months, or whatever timeframe that works best for the agency. If a year was the parameter selected for January, then in February, the analyst would also use a year, pulling the data from January 31, 2014, to January 31, 2015, to forecast February data, and so on. In terms of location, the forecasted districts are small zones that account for 30 percent of all gun crimes in the jurisdiction.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ARTICLE-TEXT-2014\">Analysts prepare monthly presentations for Stockton Police Department\u2019s Intelligence and Planning (ICAP) team, describing the forecast, incorporating a map of the area in a bounded box, and labeling the streets. The first Wednesday of each month, an analyst presents the forecast zones of all firearm-related violent crime for each of the six districts at the ICAP meeting, so the team can decide where to deploy resources. Based on the forecast data, the members of the ICAP meeting select two districts\u2014one in the north and one in the south\u2014to serve as the primary and secondary districts of focus for the month.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ARTICLE-LEVEL-2-SUBHEAD\"><em><span class=\"CharOverride-73\">Phase II: Operationalizing the Forecast<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"ARTICLE-TEXT-2014\">Analytics alone are not enough to prevent violent firearm-related crime; they must be combined with good old-fashioned police work to have an effect. The Stockton Police Department places a premium on the knowledge and experience of its officers. They know what is going on in the field, and the department\u2019s leaders ensure that officers\u2019 feedback is incorporated into the process of selecting the primary and secondary forecast areas. The principle vehicle for gathering this information is the ICAP meeting.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ARTICLE-TEXT-2014\">The ICAP meeting includes participants from the following areas: field operations (patrol), investigations (vice), the public information office, strategic operations, traffic, Neighborhood Services, and the Office of Violence Prevention, as well as the analysts for each of the six districts. Command staff solicits input on what the ICAP participants are hearing and seeing in the field with regard to the primary and secondary districts. For example, ICAP participants are asked questions, such as, which district is more likely to have a shooting or homicide this next month? Which district has had an uptick in violence?<\/p>\n<p class=\"ARTICLE-TEXT-2014\">Based on the forecast and ICAP participants\u2019 intelligence, the primary and secondary district zones are locked for the month. Command staff issues a directive to ICAP participants asking them to provide their action plan for using their individual and collective areas of expertise to prevent gun violence in the designated areas.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_36379\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-36379\" style=\"width: 1366px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.policechiefmagazine.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/image-4.bmp\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-36379\" src=\"http:\/\/www.policechiefmagazine.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/image-4.bmp\" alt=\"\" width=\"1366\" height=\"618\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-36379\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The heat map combines crime type and frequency data with geospatial data to pinpoint high-crime zones and guide the department in determining where to deploy the most resources.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"ARTICLE-TEXT-2014\">For example, in the months of July and August 2016, there was a significant increase in gun violence in the area of Ponce DeLeon and North Sacramento Road. As expected, crime analysis presented a forecast area for the month of September that included a neighborhood surrounding the area of Ponce DeLeon and North Sacramento Road. This forecast area was selected by the members of the ICAP meeting to receive the extra attention for the month of September. During that month, the police department not only had patrol officers making extra checks in the neighborhood and being dispatched to that neighborhood as a result of the calls generated, but they also rolled out other proactive units to try to maintain a visible presence of police. That increased presence and attention to the area is designed to prevent gun violence from occurring.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ARTICLE-LEVEL-2-SUBHEAD\"><em><span class=\"CharOverride-73\">Phase III: Continuous Improvement<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"ARTICLE-TEXT-2014\">Operationalizing Project Forebode was just the beginning. Command staff recognized that it was not enough to develop the consistent parameters for the forecast. The process must be refined, based on intelligence from the field and lessons learned from reviewing forecast results. For example, rather than just dispatching a police car to the district where the forecast indicated an area would be \u201chot\u201d with violent firearm-related crimes, the department focused all of its resources from ICAP participants in those zones. For the approach to be successful, command staff realized it needed to have these additional resources in the districts at least 15 percent of the time.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ARTICLE-TEXT-2014\">Early indications are showing a reduction in firearm-related violent crime. The department preliminarily saw a 40 percent to 60 percent month-to-month decrease in firearm-related violent crime incidents in re-spective ICAP-selected forecast zones from March through May 2016. The department also preliminarily saw a 20 percent to 30 percent decrease in property crime. However, the benefit of using an evidence-based approach to policing is that if the department isn\u2019t seeing a decrease in gun crime, it simply pivots and alters its zones based on intelligence from the field.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"ARTICLE-SUBHEAD-2014\"><span class=\"CharOverride-73\" style=\"color: #333300;\">Conclusion<\/span><\/h3>\n<p class=\"ARTICLE-TEXT-2014\">The evidence-based approach has proven popular internally\u2014officers and analysts like it. Plus, the Stockton Police Department is starting to add new recruits to its force, in part due to its use of this innovative approach. New officers want to come to work for a police force that is using data to drive down crime. Most importantly, the community is seeing a decrease in firearm-related violent crime because its police department is using technology to help fight the problem. The Stockton Police Department is committed to both leveraging an evidence-based approach to policing and to continuing to innovate.\u00a0\u2666<\/p>\n<table id=\"table003\" class=\"Basic-Table\" style=\"background-color: #a9dbb1;\">\n<colgroup>\n<col class=\"_idGenTableRowColumn-4\" \/><\/colgroup>\n<tbody>\n<tr class=\"Basic-Table _idGenTableRowColumn-5\">\n<td class=\"Basic-Table CellOverride-3\">\n<p class=\"ARTICLE-TEXT-2014 ParaOverride-34\"><strong><span class=\"PALATINO-NOVA-PRO-BOLD\">Eric Jones <\/span><\/strong>began his career with the Stockton, California, Police Department in 1993, where he served in a number of capacities before his appointment as the chief of police in 2012. Chief Jones led the department in intelligence-led policing and real-time policing, and he created the agency\u2019s first community response teams and community advisory board. Under his leadership, Stockton was selected as one of only six pilot sites for the National Initiative for Building Community Trust and Justice. Chief Jones is a member of IACP and the California Police Chiefs Association and is a past president of the Central Sierra Police Chiefs Association.<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p class=\"ARTICLE-FOOTNOTE-2014 ParaOverride-8\"><strong><span class=\"PALATINO-NOVA-PRO-BOLD\">Notes:<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"ARTICLE-FOOTNOTE-2014\"><sup>1<\/sup>Jordan Guinn and Zachary K. Johnson, \u201cStockton No. 2 in Violent Crime,\u201d <a href=\"http:\/\/www.recordnet.com\/article\/20120621\/A_NEWS02\/206210333\"><em><span class=\"PALATINO-NOVA-PRO-ITAL\">Recordnet.com<\/span><\/em>,<\/a> June 21, 2012.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ARTICLE-FOOTNOTE-2014\"><sup>2<\/sup>Cynthia Lum and Christopher S. Koper, \u201cEvidence-Based Policing,\u201d in <em><span class=\"PALATINO-NOVA-PRO-ITAL\">Critical Issues in Policing<\/span><\/em>, eds. Roger Dunham and Geoffrey Alpert, 7th ed. (Longrove, IL: Waveland Press, 2015), 260.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ARTICLE-FOOTNOTE-2014\"><sup>3<\/sup>LexisNexis Risk Solutions, \u201c<a href=\"http:\/\/www.lexisnexis.com\/risk\/products\/government\/accurint-crime-analysis.aspx\">Accurint Crime Analysis\u2013Software for Predictive Policing.\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<hr \/>\n<p>Please cite as<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: .5in;\">Eric Jones, \u201cDriving Down Violent Gun Crime with Data Analytics,\u201d <i>The Police Chief<\/i> (July 2017): 34\u201337.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<div id=\"_idContainer295\" class=\"Object-Style-1 _idGenObjectStyleOverride-2\">\n<p class=\"ARTICLE-TEXT-Drop-Cap-2014\"><span class=\"_idGenDropcap-4\">I<\/span>n 2011, the City of Stockton, California, found itself in an unenviable position. Despite the diligent efforts of the short-staffed but dedicated department, it was ranked the second most violent city in California and the tenth most violent city in the United States.<span class=\"CharOverride-14\">1<\/span> Law enforcement and the community were frustrated and looking for better results. The department\u2019s leadership was deploying its most valuable resources\u2014the men and women of its force\u2014based on experience, sound practices, and instinct, but it wasn\u2019t enough. Working harder wasn\u2019t the answer; the department needed to work smarter.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[145,146],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-36366","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-research-evidence-based-policing","category-technology"],"acf":{"post_author":"<strong><span class=\"CharOverride-75\">Eric Jones, Chief, Stockton, California, Police Department<\/span><\/strong>","main_category":"Research & Evidence-Based Policing","legacy_article_id":"","legacy_issue_id":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.4 (Yoast SEO v24.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Driving Down Violent Gun Crime with Data Analytics - Police Chief Magazine<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.policechiefmagazine.org\/driving-down-violent-gun-crime\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Driving Down Violent Gun Crime with Data Analytics\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In 2011, the City of Stockton, California, found itself in an unenviable position. Despite the diligent efforts of the short-staffed but dedicated department, it was ranked the second most violent city in California and the tenth most violent city in the United States.1 Law enforcement and the community were frustrated and looking for better results. The department\u2019s leadership was deploying its most valuable resources\u2014the men and women of its force\u2014based on experience, sound practices, and instinct, but it wasn\u2019t enough. Working harder wasn\u2019t the answer; the department needed to work smarter.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.policechiefmagazine.org\/driving-down-violent-gun-crime\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Police Chief Magazine\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/TheIACP\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2017-06-30T20:01:21+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2017-07-05T14:32:02+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/www.policechiefmagazine.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/image-3.bmp\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Dani Gudakunst\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@TheIACP\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@TheIACP\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Dani Gudakunst\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"9 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.policechiefmagazine.org\/driving-down-violent-gun-crime\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.policechiefmagazine.org\/driving-down-violent-gun-crime\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Dani Gudakunst\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.policechiefmagazine.org\/#\/schema\/person\/84ca7fd7f208094a13c5c94b803849b5\"},\"headline\":\"Driving Down Violent Gun Crime with Data Analytics\",\"datePublished\":\"2017-06-30T20:01:21+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2017-07-05T14:32:02+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.policechiefmagazine.org\/driving-down-violent-gun-crime\/\"},\"wordCount\":1751,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.policechiefmagazine.org\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.policechiefmagazine.org\/driving-down-violent-gun-crime\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"http:\/\/www.policechiefmagazine.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/image-3.bmp\",\"articleSection\":[\"Research & Evidence-Based Policing\",\"Technology\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.policechiefmagazine.org\/driving-down-violent-gun-crime\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.policechiefmagazine.org\/driving-down-violent-gun-crime\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.policechiefmagazine.org\/driving-down-violent-gun-crime\/\",\"name\":\"Driving Down Violent Gun Crime with Data Analytics - 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Despite the diligent efforts of the short-staffed but dedicated department, it was ranked the second most violent city in California and the tenth most violent city in the United States.1 Law enforcement and the community were frustrated and looking for better results. The department\u2019s leadership was deploying its most valuable resources\u2014the men and women of its force\u2014based on experience, sound practices, and instinct, but it wasn\u2019t enough. Working harder wasn\u2019t the answer; the department needed to work smarter.","og_url":"https:\/\/www.policechiefmagazine.org\/driving-down-violent-gun-crime\/","og_site_name":"Police Chief Magazine","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/TheIACP","article_published_time":"2017-06-30T20:01:21+00:00","article_modified_time":"2017-07-05T14:32:02+00:00","og_image":[{"url":"http:\/\/www.policechiefmagazine.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/image-3.bmp","type":"","width":"","height":""}],"author":"Dani Gudakunst","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@TheIACP","twitter_site":"@TheIACP","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Dani Gudakunst","Est. reading time":"9 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.policechiefmagazine.org\/driving-down-violent-gun-crime\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.policechiefmagazine.org\/driving-down-violent-gun-crime\/"},"author":{"name":"Dani Gudakunst","@id":"https:\/\/www.policechiefmagazine.org\/#\/schema\/person\/84ca7fd7f208094a13c5c94b803849b5"},"headline":"Driving Down Violent Gun Crime with Data Analytics","datePublished":"2017-06-30T20:01:21+00:00","dateModified":"2017-07-05T14:32:02+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.policechiefmagazine.org\/driving-down-violent-gun-crime\/"},"wordCount":1751,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.policechiefmagazine.org\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.policechiefmagazine.org\/driving-down-violent-gun-crime\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"http:\/\/www.policechiefmagazine.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/image-3.bmp","articleSection":["Research & Evidence-Based Policing","Technology"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/www.policechiefmagazine.org\/driving-down-violent-gun-crime\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.policechiefmagazine.org\/driving-down-violent-gun-crime\/","url":"https:\/\/www.policechiefmagazine.org\/driving-down-violent-gun-crime\/","name":"Driving Down Violent Gun Crime with Data Analytics - 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