{"id":85393,"date":"2024-10-30T08:00:05","date_gmt":"2024-10-30T12:00:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.policechiefmagazine.org\/?p=85393"},"modified":"2024-11-19T11:18:00","modified_gmt":"2024-11-19T16:18:00","slug":"risk-management-tools-modeling-preparedness-plans","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.policechiefmagazine.org\/risk-management-tools-modeling-preparedness-plans\/","title":{"rendered":"Risk Management Tools for Modeling Emergency Preparedness Plans"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"pullout pullout--wide alignleft\"><span class=\"TextRun SCXW121740463 BCX8\" lang=\"PT-BR\" xml:lang=\"PT-BR\" data-contrast=\"none\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SpellingErrorV2Themed SCXW121740463 BCX8\">This<\/span> <span class=\"NormalTextRun SpellingErrorV2Themed SCXW121740463 BCX8\">article<\/span> <span class=\"NormalTextRun SpellingErrorV2Themed SCXW121740463 BCX8\">was<\/span> <span class=\"NormalTextRun SpellingErrorV2Themed SCXW121740463 BCX8\">first<\/span> <span class=\"NormalTextRun SpellingErrorV2Themed SCXW121740463 BCX8\">published<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW121740463 BCX8\"> in Estradas.com.br: <\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SpellingErrorV2Themed SCXW121740463 BCX8\">Brazil’s<\/span> <span class=\"NormalTextRun SpellingErrorV2Themed SCXW121740463 BCX8\">reodovias<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW121740463 BCX8\"> portal in July 2023 <\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SpellingErrorV2Themed SCXW121740463 BCX8\">under<\/span> <span class=\"NormalTextRun SpellingErrorV2Themed SCXW121740463 BCX8\">the<\/span> <span class=\"NormalTextRun SpellingErrorV2Themed SCXW121740463 BCX8\">title<\/span> <span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW121740463 BCX8\">\u201c<\/span><\/span><a class=\"Hyperlink SCXW121740463 BCX8\" href=\"https:\/\/estradas.com.br\/ferramentas-de-gestao-de-riscos-contribuem-para-o-combate-a-crimes-contra-o-patrimonio\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span class=\"TextRun Underlined SCXW121740463 BCX8\" lang=\"PT-BR\" xml:lang=\"PT-BR\" data-contrast=\"none\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW121740463 BCX8\" data-ccp-charstyle=\"Hyperlink\">Risk Management Tools contribute to the fight against crimes against property<\/span><\/span><\/a><span class=\"TextRun SCXW121740463 BCX8\" lang=\"PT-BR\" xml:lang=\"PT-BR\" data-contrast=\"none\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW121740463 BCX8\">.<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW121740463 BCX8\">\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/aside>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\"><span style=\"color: #50bfe6;\"><strong>With more than 22,000 kilometers of paved highways, S\u00e3o Paulo has the largest and most complex road network of all Brazilian states<\/strong>.<\/span> The state’s Military Police is responsible for protecting all 645 municipalities, and traffic affects a large part of the country’s economy.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">This road network, mostly urbanized and prosperous in the economic and social aspects, is full of industries, oil terminals, banking establishments, airports and prisons, drawing the attention and interest of criminal organizations.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The same criminal elements that are interested in leveraging the road network and taking advantage of the opportunities it can provide commit ultraviolent crimes against property (UVP), whose main characteristic is insubordination to police forces, sometimes increased with the use of armored vehicles, rifles and machine guns or the use of hostages as human shields. As a result, these crimes generate social damage that has been the target of attention by public managers, journalists, academia and society.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"134233279":false,"134245417":false,"201341983":0,"335551550":1,"335551620":1,"335559731":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The negative impacts resulting from these events, such as loss of life, property damage, and economic losses, are of great concern to public security institutions.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #50bfe6;\" data-contrast=\"auto\">“Risk management is related to the reduction of uncertainties”<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Every step in tackling this type of extreme crime is essential to minimize the negative impacts. Currently, the monitoring and control of UVP crimes is typically carried out reactively, by each impacted unit, usually in meetings for this purpose. In these situations, there is the opportunity to review documents and gather informatoin from those who were actively involved; however this primary analysis proves to be inefficient from a tactical and operational point of view, as there is a lack of elements that provide territorial domination. organized and processed with its own methodology, suggesting the possibility of actions and measures to prevent or correct possible problems detected in the processes or areas in which the organization operates.<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\"><sup>1<\/sup>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">That said, it is believed that it is possible, by following an appropriate methodology and respecting the experience of our police officers, to gradually reduce the degree of subjectivity in the decision-making process, especially since risk tolerance is established by the Commander.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"134233279":false,"134245417":false,"201341983":0,"335551550":1,"335551620":1,"335559731":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The idea of public security, inherent to the police mission, established by the Federal Constitution of 1988, constitutes a true guarantee that the State offers to citizens, through its own organizations, including the State Military Police, against any danger that may affect public order, to the detriment of life, liberty and property.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"134233279":false,"134245417":false,"201341983":0,"335551550":1,"335551620":1,"335559731":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":600}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h1><span style=\"color: #50bfe6;\"><b>Risk Management Tools<\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h1>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">With the advent of the \u201cnew public management,\u201d terms such as <\/span><i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">governance<\/span><\/i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">, <\/span><i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">integrity, compliance<\/span><\/i><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> and <\/span><i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">risk management<\/span><\/i><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> are gradually being incorporated into the decision-making process of public administration, in order to face the complex challenges of today.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">There is no doubt that police activity is risky. In this sense, it can be said that risk management is related to the reduction of uncertainties. It is crucial for police officers to make decisions based on as much information as possible in order to take an advantageous position in the theater of operations.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"134233279":false,"134245417":false,"201341983":0,"335551550":1,"335551620":1,"335559731":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">It is possible to reason logically about the context of UVP crimes, once the causes and consequences that gave rise to the problem (or, at least, a probable hypothesis) have been established. It is necessary to define how the intervention will take place to achieve the best results.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"134233279":false,"134245417":false,"201341983":0,"335551550":1,"335551620":1,"335559731":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">To this end, some risk management tools were selected that can be used by each Commander to identify, assess and manage risks, because the more structured the institution is and the more mature the risk management structure, the greater the security of the action.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"color: #50bfe6;\"><b>Risk Map<\/b><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The risk map is a tool that allows the assessment of risks according to the criteria or parameters provided by specialists, technicians or those responsible for identifying the risk.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"134233279":false,"134245417":false,"201341983":0,"335551550":1,"335551620":1,"335559731":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"none\">The map should reflect the risk analysis to allow a holistic view, that is, indicate the risk at the time before treatment and its current situation.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"134233279":false,"134245417":false,"201341983":0,"335551550":1,"335551620":1,"335559731":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"none\">Risks can be filtered to the organization or department, as well as opportunities or threats and other grouping mechanisms that make it easier to visualize the problem.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"134233279":false,"134245417":false,"201341983":0,"335551550":1,"335551620":1,"335559731":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_85395\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-85395\" style=\"width: 798px\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-85395 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.policechiefmagazine.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/Figure-1-4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"798\" height=\"424\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.policechiefmagazine.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/Figure-1-4.png 798w, https:\/\/www.policechiefmagazine.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/Figure-1-4-300x159.png 300w, https:\/\/www.policechiefmagazine.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/Figure-1-4-768x408.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 798px) 100vw, 798px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-85395\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Figure 1: Paulo Henrique De Souza Bermejo et al., ForRisco: Risk Management in Public Institutions in Practice, 2nd ed. (Evobiz, 2019). Reproduced here in its original Portuguese<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p> <\/p>\n<p> <\/p>\n<p> <\/p>\n<p aria-level=\"2\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">In the example above, the dark circles (filled) represent the previous moment (of risk identification) and the light circles, the current moment. The numbers indicated in the circles represent the amount of related risks. Department 2, for example, maintained the number of risks from the previous moment, however, its risks had a high level of impact, which caused a repositioning in the graph, going from a light to a moderate impact.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"134245418":true,"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p aria-level=\"2\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">In this format, after the risks are properly identified and registered, in order to allow the survey of possible causes and consequences, in addition to their classification as to category and nature, the process of their evaluation regarding probability versus impact follows. In Figure 1, blue indicates the normality of the risk; green, minimum urgency; yellow requires attention; and red characterizes the most urgent risks.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"134245418":true,"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"color: #50bfe6;\"><b>Summary Reports<\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The purpose of summary reports is to provide information to decision-makers with a synthetic view of the amount of risks at the time of their identification (previous moment) and current moment, as well as a comparison between these two moments. This technique presents the sum of threats and opportunities through a filter.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The following image shows this set of information across four departments of any organization, during a given time period.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_85396\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-85396\" style=\"width: 642px\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-85396 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.policechiefmagazine.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/Figure-2-5.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"642\" height=\"558\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.policechiefmagazine.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/Figure-2-5.jpg 642w, https:\/\/www.policechiefmagazine.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/Figure-2-5-300x261.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 642px) 100vw, 642px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-85396\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Figure 2: Paulo Henrique De Souza Bermejo et al., ForRisco: Risk Management in Public Institutions in Practice, 2nd ed. (Evobiz, 2019). Reproduced here in its original Portuguese<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p> <\/p>\n<p> <\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">In this scenario, it is observed that Department 1 maintained the number of threats from the previous moment, but identified a current opportunity. Department<sup>2<\/sup>, on the other hand, resolved a threat and concluded an opportunity.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The summary report does not contain the severity of the risks, focusing instead on the number of risks and opportunities to which departments are exposed. <\/span><span data-contrast=\"none\">This technique allows for a quick and expanded view of which departments are facing the most problems and require the most attention. In conjunction with this type of report, succinct and <\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">explanatory texts should be developed in relation to the risks and opportunities identified.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"color: #50bfe6;\"><b>Alert Communications and Messages<\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n<p aria-level=\"2\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">After the quantitative registration of risks, a set of information, such as the date of a survey and the proximity to the last update, can contribute to the planning of the systematic review. For example, a severe risk that hasn’t been updated in more than seven days can cause a problem. In this case, it is recommended that the risks be revisited frequently to update the registration information.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"134245418":true,"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Another example corresponds to risks that are close to the deadline of the solution. Through alert messages, it is possible to keep decision-makers updated and ready to respond. In this context, the use of information systems that can be created for specific alerts by email or other communication channel is a priority to ensure that managers are notified of risks in the conduct of their activities.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Virtual communication mechanisms are a practical means of communication between all managers and employees, as they allow everyone to ask questions and talk to experts and, more importantly, allow leadership to talk to the work team.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"color: #50bfe6;\"><b>Decision Tree<\/b><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Among the most practical models that contribute to the decision-making process are decision trees.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The method is characterized by systematizing a series of facts, risks, probabilities and opportunities – related to a situation; goal; Goals; or, on a larger scale, programs and projects\u2014whose effects must be recognized, manipulated and compared.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #50bfe6;\" data-contrast=\"none\">“Insight arises from the process of adapting and improving ideas, which can even serve as inspiration for solutions to other problems”<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The method also ensures that the quality of all decisions is influenced by the accuracy of the information; the quality of judgments and evaluations; their probability factors; and the decision-maker’s attitude toward risk management.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Decision trees take the form of diagrams and structure a map with possible choices for the best course of action. Despite its simple form, this tool can provide justification for choosing alternative courses of action\/decision.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_85397\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-85397\" style=\"width: 786px\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-85397 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.policechiefmagazine.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/Figure-3-4.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"786\" height=\"475\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.policechiefmagazine.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/Figure-3-4.jpg 786w, https:\/\/www.policechiefmagazine.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/Figure-3-4-300x181.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.policechiefmagazine.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/Figure-3-4-768x464.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 786px) 100vw, 786px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-85397\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Table 3: Paulo Henrique De Souza Bermejo et al., ForRisco: Risk Management in Public Institutions in Practice, 2nd ed. (Evobiz, 2019). Reproduced here in its original Portuguese<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p> <\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The tree is useful, not only to organize the influencing factors on the problem at hand, but also to stimulate the imagination and deepen the examination of crucial elements, revealing points of possible impacts and consequences. In addition, it is an auxiliary method of verifying and contesting the measures taken, as it allows the codification of impacts by other independent means of analysis.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"color: #50bfe6;\"><b>Brainstorming<\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"none\">Brainstorming is a technique created in 1953 by Alex Osborn, focused on solving problems or expanding ideas. A group of people meets and, based on their thoughts and suggestions, the possibility of reaching a consensus on the case under study is suggested<\/span><span data-contrast=\"none\"><sup>2<\/sup><\/span><\/p>\n<p aria-level=\"2\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">The first step of the technique, and perhaps the most important, is to ensure the definition of the problem, because only then will it be possible to plan corrective actions.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"134245418":true,"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"color: #50bfe6;\"><strong>“When reality is simple and without great uncertainties, common sense can be used satisfactorily and without major surprises”<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p aria-level=\"2\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">Brainstorming has multiple advantages, but its main benefit may be the ability to germinate the causes of problems, help decide on a step-by-step process for the development of a project and recognize opportunities, as well as encourage everyone’s participation, considering that censorship by other participants is not allowed.<\/span><span data-contrast=\"none\"><sup>3<\/sup> <\/span><span data-contrast=\"none\">Insight arises from the process of adapting and improving ideas, which can even serve as inspiration for solutions to other problems.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"134245418":true,"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">It is a technique used to develop creative and innovative ideas. All members of the group present suggestions randomly, while one person registers the ideas, without criticism. The process allows new ideas to emerge; the emergence of ideas, including unknown ones, increases; stimulates synergy; and discourages evaluation or judgment. Brainstorming escapes the limits of logical thinking and transcends the constraints of tradition, time, resources, and precedents.<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\"><sup>4<\/sup>\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">A variation of brainstorming is brain writing, and the basic difference between the two tools is the fact that, in the latter, opinions and ideas are presented by the group in writing.<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\"><sup>5<\/sup> <\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">It is excellent for capturing the creative thinking of a team. The important thing is the quantity of ideas presented, not the quality.<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\"><sup>6<\/sup>\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"none\">Brainstorming can be facilitated by the following process:\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Agree with the question.<\/li>\n<li><span data-contrast=\"none\"> Transcribe all ideas\u2014<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">all ideas should be exposed at the same time.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> Decide together which option is the best among the alternatives.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p aria-level=\"2\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">In addition, there are two main types of brainstorming:\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"134245418":true,"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li aria-level=\"2\"><b><span data-contrast=\"none\">Structured: <\/span><\/b><span data-contrast=\"none\">There is a methodology for ideas to be expressed; it has the advantage of getting everyone on board. On the other hand, it has the disadvantage of putting pressure on the participants.<\/span><\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"2\"><b><span data-contrast=\"none\">Unstructured<\/span><\/b><span data-contrast=\"none\">: Ideas manifest spontaneously, without a specific methodology; its main advantage is that it is a calmer meeting, without pressure; However, it has the disadvantage of not having the participation of everyone, since the most timid employees can remain silent, while the most expansive can monopolize the survey of alternatives, making the result biased.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"134245418":true,"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p aria-level=\"2\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">It is up to the <\/span><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">brainstorming leader to <\/span><\/i><span data-contrast=\"none\">define the method of data collection, depending on the complexity of the problem and the profile of the participants.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"134245418":true,"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"color: #50bfe6;\"><b>Scenario Analysis<\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The main function of scenario analysis is to recognize the context (internal and external) in which the organization is inserted. Scenarios are alternative images of the future that favor the decision-making process and also configure possible or probable futures through the simulation and unfolding of<\/span><b> certain differentiated conditions and externalization of the events that would lead to their realization.<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">In the development of this methodology, it is recommended to use the SWOT analysis approach\u2014Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats, which strengthen the investigation and formulation of organizational strategies.<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\"><sup>7<\/sup>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The idea is to have a complete and integrated picture of the possible factual contexts, based on the environmental analysis and, for each need detected, on the obstacles that may hinder or prevent the achievement of the intended objective.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><span style=\"color: #50bfe6;\"><strong>“Great decision-makers, such as chess players, do not make the move that produces the greatest immediate advantage”<\/strong><\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Thus, in essence, scenarios are an analytical and speculative approach that, as a complement to decision-making, serve to explain the assumptions, integrate variables and allow the emergence of uncertainties, in the face of the participation of the various actors, which may, in some way, favor or oppose the achievement of the objectives.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u201cThinking about the future\u201d means looking far away\u2014worrying about the long term; looking big picture\u2014being careful about interactions; and looking deep\u2014finding the factors and trends that are really important; as well as taking risks, because visions of distant horizons can change long-term plans, and taking into account the human race, a great agent capable of changing the future.<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\"><sup>8<\/sup><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">When reality is simple and without great uncertainties, common sense can be used satisfactorily and without major surprises in solving the problems of the decision. However, when reality becomes complex, common sense can become erratic and the choice of a criterion to support the decision should be left to the manager, who will seek to find in it an auxiliary tool for problem solving.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">According to business professor Michael E. Porter, the following strategic options can be considered:\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Bet on the most likely scenario\u2014The strategy will be based on the scenario with the highest probability of occurrence (the strategy adopted by most companies).<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li data-leveltext=\"\uf0b7\" data-font=\"Symbol\" data-listid=\"24\" data-list-defn-props=\"{"335552541":1,"335559685":720,"335559991":360,"469769226":"Symbol","469769242":[8226],"469777803":"left","469777804":"\uf0b7","469777815":"hybridMultilevel"}\" aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-aria-posinset=\"1\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Bet <\/span><b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">on the best scenario\u2014<\/span><\/b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Define the strategy based on the scenario that the organization believes is the best for its future competitive positioning.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li data-leveltext=\"\uf0b7\" data-font=\"Symbol\" data-listid=\"24\" data-list-defn-props=\"{"335552541":1,"335559685":720,"335559991":360,"469769226":"Symbol","469769242":[8226],"469777803":"left","469777804":"\uf0b7","469777815":"hybridMultilevel"}\" aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-aria-posinset=\"2\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Seek robustness, define the strategy that produces satisfactory results in all scenarios.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li data-leveltext=\"\uf0b7\" data-font=\"Symbol\" data-listid=\"24\" data-list-defn-props=\"{"335552541":1,"335559685":720,"335559991":360,"469769226":"Symbol","469769242":[8226],"469777803":"left","469777804":"\uf0b7","469777815":"hybridMultilevel"}\" aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-aria-posinset=\"3\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Aim for flexibility\u2014A flexible strategy is adopted until the most likely scenario becomes apparent.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li data-leveltext=\"\uf0b7\" data-font=\"Symbol\" data-listid=\"24\" data-list-defn-props=\"{"335552541":1,"335559685":720,"335559991":360,"469769226":"Symbol","469769242":[8226],"469777803":"left","469777804":"\uf0b7","469777815":"hybridMultilevel"}\" aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-aria-posinset=\"4\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Influencing the occurrence of the best-case scenario\u2014The organization seeks to increase the probability of the best-case scenario occurring.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li data-leveltext=\"\uf0b7\" data-font=\"Symbol\" data-listid=\"22\" data-list-defn-props=\"{"335552541":1,"335559685":720,"335559991":360,"469769226":"Symbol","469769242":[8226],"469777803":"left","469777804":"\uf0b7","469777815":"hybridMultilevel"}\" aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-aria-posinset=\"1\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">Combine some of the above<\/span><span data-contrast=\"none\"><sup>9<\/sup><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">To decide is to choose a plan of action, a strategy, in the light of the understanding and knowledge that one has in the present reality. This must be done in association with the vision of future circumstances, based on experience and knowledge of the past, which directs the objectives.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Great decision-makers, such as chess players, do not make the move that produces the greatest immediate advantage, but the move that, many steps later, will offer the best and most successful position.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">To define the action plan, it is suggested, for simplicity, the adoption of the 5W2H methodology. The <\/span><i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">w<\/span><\/i><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> and <\/span><i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">h<\/span><\/i><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> represent mission-related actions and requirements:\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> What: What will be done<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> Who: who will carry out the activities<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> Where: where these activities will be carried out<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> When: when each activity will be carried out<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> Why: Determination of the reasons for actions<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> How: how the activities will be carried out<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> How much: what resources or funds will be spent on the activity\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The awareness planning approach is the basis for diagnosing any situation in which it is necessary to implement a methodology for the construction of prospective scenarios, and it is only necessary to adapt them to the reality of each manager.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">In a study carried out by two researchers, Elaine Coutinho Marcial and Alfredo Jos\u00e9 Lopes Costa, in 2001, examining the effects of competitive intelligence on the process of elaborating a strategic scenario and understanding its methodology by the directors of Banco do Brasil (BB), it was shown:<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #50bfe6;\" data-contrast=\"auto\">“The use of prevention indicators is essential for the reduction of social damage”<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Due to the speed at which the macro environment is changing, companies have been more affected by it than by the environment of their own industry. For this reason, there has been a growing need for environmental monitoring, which, according to Stoffels (1994), is a set of techniques capable of transcribing to the company the issues of external competitiveness, which concern social, political, economic and technological variables\u2014which may be difficult to observe or diagnose, but cannot be ignored<\/span><\/i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">.<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\"><sup>10<\/sup><\/span><\/p>\n<p> <\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_85398\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-85398\" style=\"width: 686px\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-85398 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.policechiefmagazine.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/Table-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"686\" height=\"405\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.policechiefmagazine.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/Table-1.jpg 686w, https:\/\/www.policechiefmagazine.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/Table-1-300x177.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 686px) 100vw, 686px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-85398\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Table 1: Elaine Coutinho Marcial and Alfredo Jos\u00e9 Lopes Costa, The Use of Prospective Scenarios in Business Strategy: Speculative Foresight or Competitive Intelligence (ANPAD, 2001). Reproduced here in its original Portuguese<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p> <\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"none\">As shown in Table 1, out of a total of 58 interviewees:\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li data-leveltext=\"\uf0b7\" data-font=\"Symbol\" data-listid=\"23\" data-list-defn-props=\"{"335552541":1,"335559685":720,"335559991":360,"469769226":"Symbol","469769242":[8226],"469777803":"left","469777804":"\uf0b7","469777815":"hybridMultilevel"}\" aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-aria-posinset=\"1\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">36 percent master the methodology, develop it and apply it;\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li data-leveltext=\"\uf0b7\" data-font=\"Symbol\" data-listid=\"23\" data-list-defn-props=\"{"335552541":1,"335559685":720,"335559991":360,"469769226":"Symbol","469769242":[8226],"469777803":"left","469777804":"\uf0b7","469777815":"hybridMultilevel"}\" aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-aria-posinset=\"2\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">35 percent recognize, develop and seek mastery of the methodology;\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li data-leveltext=\"\uf0b7\" data-font=\"Symbol\" data-listid=\"23\" data-list-defn-props=\"{"335552541":1,"335559685":720,"335559991":360,"469769226":"Symbol","469769242":[8226],"469777803":"left","469777804":"\uf0b7","469777815":"hybridMultilevel"}\" aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-aria-posinset=\"3\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">14 percent recognize the importance, but do not apply it;\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li data-leveltext=\"\uf0b7\" data-font=\"Symbol\" data-listid=\"23\" data-list-defn-props=\"{"335552541":1,"335559685":720,"335559991":360,"469769226":"Symbol","469769242":[8226],"469777803":"left","469777804":"\uf0b7","469777815":"hybridMultilevel"}\" aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-aria-posinset=\"4\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">2 percemt are unaware of the scenarios and, therefore, do not apply them.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"none\">In conclusion, the study makes the following statement:\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p aria-level=\"2\"><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">The tests applied <\/span><\/i><b><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">showed that the environmental turbulence in the financial system has led BB executives to be concerned about the short term and, therefore, to show little interest in \u201cthinking about the future.\u201d <\/span><\/i><\/b><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">The issue of stimulating strategic thinking and establishing a vision of the future was in last place in the order of priorities. <\/span><\/i><b><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">To change this, it is necessary to create in BB a unified language on the various concepts that involve scenario techniques so that there are no doubts about the terms used<\/span><\/i><\/b><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">.<\/span><\/i><span data-contrast=\"none\"><sup>11<\/sup><\/span><span data-contrast=\"none\">(emphasis added)<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"134245418":true,"201341983":0,"335559685":708,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">\u00a0<\/span><\/i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Now, considering the constant changes that police organizations face, taking into account the magnitudes of the challenges, which are increasingly distinct and complex, and also in view of the probability of suffering serious injuries, traumas and deaths, in the face of occurrences involving UVP crimes, there is no doubt that the notion of risk, for these occurrences, goes beyond the ordinary daily life of a police officer. This is an \u201cepidemiological risk,\u201d which must be tackled with the right medicine.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Police officers should use force when necessary and, above all, they should use procedural and police information techniques. In this sense, the construction of prospective scenarios helps a lot, as it allows for true institutional enrichment in operational terms.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h1><span style=\"color: #50bfe6;\"><b>The Modeling of Preventive or Emergency Preparedness Plans<\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h1>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Risk management precedes the stages of incident management (which occur at the beginning of the crime) and is basically composed of the prevention and emergency preparedness phases. A third perspective of damage mitigation is a direct effect of the successful execution of the previous steps.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><span style=\"color: #50bfe6;\"><strong>“For planning to be successful, it is necessary to verify the conditioning elements in the achievement of the intended objectives”<\/strong><\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">As much as the current reactive practice of monitoring and controlling UVP crimes produces some results, and even considering that some units are already advancing in terms of preparation, due to the performance of simulations, it is necessary to use new instruments that can further increase the preparation of the police force, depending on the profiles of these occurrences.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">In this context, the use of prevention indicators is essential for the reduction of social damage, as it enables the correction of failures during the process of preventive action, logically already preceded by a careful phase of choosing these indicators, which organizes the emergency preparation stage, in order to safely receive the next phase of incident management.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">This methodology aims to further improve the UVP crime response system, before negative events reach police and civilians, because, as much as the collection of quantitative data is a fundamental step in the criminal analysis process, it is only the first stage of a construction that involves several actors in the public security system.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Nowadays, there is a widespread recognition in the scientific community that no public or private organization, with military or civilian purposes, functions well without human capital capable of efficiently and effectively carrying out the activities assigned to it. It can be considered that the situation is even worse when the organization is unable to improve or outline actions to prevent crime, in a field where this is the main responsibility of the organization.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">For planning to be successful, it is necessary to verify the conditioning elements in the achievement of the intended objectives. The analysis of the profile and structural aspect of each operational unit allows the evaluation of focus and flexibility, that is, with a focus of action, the unit identifies the point of convergence of efforts and, with flexibility, achieves the ability to adjust as the progress of the incident requires.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">As can be predicted, structured planning offers a number of operational advantages, including increased flexibility, coordination, and time management. The following, in addition to increasing situational awareness, allows an organization to allocate the resources it uses to gain the best possible operational advantage.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The <\/span><b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">available means (currently used) and the potential (which can be achieved over time) <\/span><\/b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">are part of the analysis of the operating environment of territorial or specialized units. The environment determines the nature of the power design and the behavior of operating assets. When operational assets work in the environment of certainty, small operational changes can adjust perfectly to demand; however, in the face of UVP crimes, which involve complex and differentiated activities, there is a need for a strategy that leads to the growth or controlled expansion of actions, due to the complexity, fluidity and uncertainty of the environment.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The <\/span><b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">needs of territorial or specialized units are related to the needs that must be met<\/span><\/b><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> (technological, human, training, equipment, among others) and that can help, in the future, the process of prevention and preparation for emergencies in relation to UVP crimes. The main objective is to put the operational structure at the service of the environment, strategy, technology and operational assets, that is, the meeting of needs must be able to organize and articulate resources in order to seek the adequacy of all the multiple circumstances that can serve the risk reduction process.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480,"469777462":[709],"469777927":[0],"469777928":[1]}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Obstacles <\/span><b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">to preventive or emergency preparedness are the adverse or antagonistic factors that hinder or prevent the planning of preventive or emergency preparedness actions <\/span><\/b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">by territorial or specialized units. The notion of obstacles will necessarily lead to the prioritization of tasks and decisions about which ones will be executed with greater operational security. Through careful contingency planning, it is possible to anticipate possible scenarios and articulate an effective response before they happen. A well-informed, trained team that understands the actions that will be carried out, already considering the possible obstacles, prevents the policing system from being overloaded with risky and improvised decisions, in addition to enabling an effective decentralized command.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480,"469777462":[851],"469777927":[0],"469777928":[1]}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Knowledge management, <\/span><\/b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">based on lessons learned and the exchange of experiences, allows an efficient methodology for the elaboration and dissemination of action plans. In the context of UVP crimes, numerous problems are added, as the actions, in addition to being complex in themselves, require extreme attention. These occurrences, due to the environment of pressure and risk, in addition to generating stress, require quick decisions and this process can overwhelm Commanders. Therefore, all planning begins with the analysis of the mission and especially the lessons learned. Commanders should cultivate clear guidelines for their teams.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><span style=\"color: #50bfe6;\"><strong>“Information gathering is important, but it should be employed with realistic expectations”<\/strong><\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">In leading a territorial or specialized unit, Commanders must assume that in planning there will always be some kind of risk, which must be considered in all its circumstances. Knowledge management does not minimize the importance of any aspect and serves to prepare the team for the most likely contingencies in order to maximize mission success and mitigate the risks inherent in operational assets.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Once a preventive action or emergency preparedness plan has been drawn up, it should be communicated to all staff and units involved; In addition, knowledge about the actions must be provided to the other participants and support elements in the actions.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">A good summary of the actions will allow the participants of the operation to understand the strategy, the intention of the Commander, the mission of the teams and their roles. In addition, this will provide you with a correct understanding of contingencies, for example, challenges that may arise and how to react to them.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The <\/span><b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">pre-incidental phase<\/span><\/b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u2014prior to the outbreak of the incident and focused on the preventive aspect\u2014is essentially intended for the territorial protection of the area to be affected.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The unit must activate the territorial defense plan of the impacted municipality and the surrounding municipalities; reinforce the barracks guard and maintain an exclusive team for communications; define safe points for the command and positioning of patrols; establish an action limit for each service unit; carry out the prior preparation of the terrain and possible attack sites; carry out the mapping of rural properties and hotels; verify the monitoring systems and their correct functioning; check emergency communication systems; and perform tactical patrolling and preventive blockade in layers.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The <\/span><b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">emergency preparation phase<\/span><\/b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">, after knowledge of the fact and before the teams are sent to the theater of operations, consists of a true preparation for the first service and aims to execute the local siege plan and the regional siege plan under the coordination of the Operations Center of the Military Police of the State of S\u00e3o Paulo (COPOM).<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Commanders must be prepared to understand all the variables of the environment at once. This phase will allow for operational safety before they take control and interpretation of the environment. The current day-to-day problems of emergency situations or without a defined strategy will be mitigated at this time. Selecting and understanding the previously defined operating environment will reduce dissonance and maintain consonance between patrols. Studies have shown that early reactions and an incomplete understanding of the theater of operations put police officers at a disadvantage, tipping the scales in favor of offenders.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The <\/span><b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">post-incident phase is intended for <\/span><\/b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">recording the occurrence; checking injured people; preserving the crime scene; collecting banknotes and materials left during the escape; verifying the existence or not of secondary explosives that have not yet been detonated, including inside abandoned vehicles; collecting images from recording systems; checking abandoned vehicles; verifying the presence of fugitives in the forest; injured in hospitals, or who committed suicide on private property; and tunnel checks.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">For the previous three phases to work in synergy, there must be a point of connection between training and mobilization activities\u2014the planning phase. UVP crimes require an environmental perception peculiar to operational assets. There are some risks that cannot be mitigated; However, detailed plans help manage them because everyone involved, directly or indirectly, will know how to overcome or work around obstacles when they arise or even how to control situations when something goes wrong.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h1><span style=\"color: #50bfe6;\"><b>Conclusion<\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h1>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">It is essential that all levels of command have access to the knowledge that involves risk management and appropriate this knowledge.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">First responders almost never have a complete picture or a clear and certain understanding of the actions or reactions of offenders who commit UVP crimes. The first contact, as demonstrated in this article, can be the shooting and the violent impact of the shots received.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">It is essential that commanders and subordinate personnel make the best possible decisions based on the information they have access to and must act decisively in the midst of uncertainty.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Information gathering is important, but it should be employed with realistic expectations. Commanders and operational assets must be able to create scenarios based on previous experiences, accessing knowledge about the modi operandi of criminals, in order to have intelligence available for immediate use. This way of acting makes a huge difference, as police officers face life-or-death situations, and it is the leader’s obligation to bring them back alive from missions. <span style=\"font-family: Webdings;\">d<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<aside class=\"pullout pullout--wide alignleft\"><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft wp-image-85399 size-thumbnail\" src=\"https:\/\/www.policechiefmagazine.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/Foto-IACP-2024-e1729171726551-150x150.png\" alt=\"Major Luiz Eduardo Ulian Junqueira\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.policechiefmagazine.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/Foto-IACP-2024-e1729171726551-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/www.policechiefmagazine.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/Foto-IACP-2024-e1729171726551-300x300.png 300w, https:\/\/www.policechiefmagazine.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/Foto-IACP-2024-e1729171726551.png 314w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"EOP SCXW130165375 BCX8\" data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559738":240,"335559739":160,"335559740":480}\"><span class=\"TextRun SCXW117021963 BCX8\" lang=\"EN-US\" xml:lang=\"EN-US\" data-contrast=\"auto\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW117021963 BCX8\"><strong><em>Major Luiz Eduardo Ulian Junqueira\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>holds a PhD in Police Sciences for Security and Public Order. In addition to having a Professional Specialization Course in Road Traffic and long experience on S\u00e3o Paulo highways, currently serving as a Lieutenant Colonel for the Brazilian Military Police.<\/span><\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/aside>\n<p> <\/p>\n<p><b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Notes:<\/span><\/b><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"none\"><sup>1<\/sup><\/span><span data-contrast=\"none\">Risks \u201care systematic ways of dealing with the dangers and insecurities induced and introduced by the modernization process itself\u201d; Ulrich Beck, <\/span><i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Risk Society: Towards a New Modernity <\/span><\/i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">(London: Sage, 1992).\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"none\"><sup>2<\/sup><\/span><span data-contrast=\"none\">Alex Faickney Osborn was a U.S. advertising executive. He was the author of an important creativity technique called <\/span><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">brainstorming.\u202f\u00a0<\/span><\/i><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335551550":6,"335551620":6,"335559739":200,"335559740":240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"none\"><sup>3<\/sup><\/span><span data-contrast=\"none\">he author identifies brainstorming<\/span><span data-contrast=\"none\"> to be more than a group dynamics technique; defining it as an activity developed to explore the creative potential of an individual or a group\u2014the creativity of the team\u2014putting it at the service of predetermined objectives.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"none\"><sup>4<\/sup><\/span><span data-contrast=\"none\">George <\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Bohlander, Scott Snell and Arthur Sherman, <\/span><i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Human Resource Administration, <\/span><\/i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">trans. Maria L\u00facia G. Leite Rosa (S\u00e3o Paulo, Brazil: Pioneira Thomson Learning, 2003), 547.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335551550":1,"335551620":1,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\"><sup>5<\/sup><\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Elaine Coutinho Marcial and Alfredo Jos\u00e9 Lopes Costa<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">, <\/span><i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The Use of Prospective Scenarios in Business Strategy: Speculative Foresight or Competitive Intelligence <\/span><\/i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">(ANPAD, 2001).\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335551550":1,"335551620":1,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\"><sup>6<\/sup><\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">L.C.G. de Araujo, <\/span><i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Organization, Systems and Methods and Technologies of Organizational Management<\/span><\/i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">. vol. 1. S\u00e3o Paulo: Atlas, 2008.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"none\"><sup>7<\/sup><\/span><span data-contrast=\"none\">SWOT analysis <\/span><span data-contrast=\"none\">is a strategic planning technique used to help people or organizations identify competition-related strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats in business or project planning.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\"><sup>8<\/sup><\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Michel<\/span> <span data-contrast=\"auto\">Godet, \u201cCreating the Future: The Use and Misuse of Scenarios,\u201d Long-Range Planning 29, no. 2 (1996): 164\u2013171.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335551550":1,"335551620":1,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\"><sup>9<\/sup><\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Michel E. Porter, <\/span><i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Competitive Advantage: Creating and Sustaining Superior Performance<\/span><\/i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">, 7th ed. (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: Campus, 1992).<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335551550":1,"335551620":1,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\"><sup>10<\/sup><\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Marcial and Costa, <\/span><i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The Use of Prospective Scenarios in Business Strategy.<\/span><\/i><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335551550":1,"335551620":1,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\"><sup>11<\/sup><\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Marcial and Costa, <\/span><i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The Use of Prospective Scenarios in Business Strategy.<\/span><\/i><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335551550":1,"335551620":1,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>Please cite as<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">Luiz Eduardo Ulian Junqueria, \u201cRisk Management Tools for Modeling Emergency Preparedness Plans,\u201d Police Chief Online, October 30, 2024.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\"><span style=\"color: #50bfe6;\">With more than 22,000 kilometers of paved highways, S\u00e3o Paulo has the largest and most complex road network of all Brazilian states.<\/span> The state’s Military Police is responsible for protecting all 645 municipalities, and traffic affects a large part of the country’s economy.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">This road network, mostly urbanized and prosperous in the economic and social aspects, is full of industries, oil terminals, banking establishments, airports and prisons, drawing the attention and interest of criminal organizations.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The same criminal elements that are interested in leveraging the road network and taking advantage of the opportunities it can provide commit ultraviolent crimes against property (UVP), whose main characteristic is insubordination to police forces, sometimes increased with the use of armored vehicles, rifles and machine guns or the use of hostages as human shields. As a result, these crimes generate social damage that has been the target of attention by public managers, journalists, academia and society.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{"134233279":false,"134245417":false,"201341983":0,"335551550":1,"335551620":1,"335559731":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":480}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":39055,"featured_media":85404,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[173,132,134],"tags":[813,236,477,1832,765,228,1092,352],"class_list":["post-85393","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bonus-online-article","category-education-training","category-global-policing","tag-alert-system","tag-brazil","tag-emergency","tag-high-risk","tag-preparedness","tag-risk-management","tag-risk-mitigation","tag-scenarios"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","post_author":"Luiz Eduardo Ulian Junqueria, Lieutenant Colonel, Brazilian Military Police","main_category":"Education & Training","legacy_article_id":"","legacy_issue_id":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.4 (Yoast SEO v24.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Risk Planning: Effective Tools for Crime Prevention - Police Chief Magazine<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Risk planning tools can help in the fight against crimes against property in Brazil's complex road network\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.policechiefmagazine.org\/risk-management-tools-modeling-preparedness-plans\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Risk Management Tools for Modeling Emergency Preparedness Plans\" 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